创新驱动产业结构升级的制度基础——基于门槛模型的实证研究

在经济发展动能依靠创新驱动产业结构升级的新阶段，制度基础是否为新动能提供了有效激励？基于2009—2016年中国内地省际数据，采用非线性面板门槛模型，实证研究市场化、政府创新扶持、技术市场发育、金融发展和知识产权保护等5个制度因素对创新驱动产业结构升级的影响。结果发现：①市场和政府对创新驱动产业升级的作用并不是非此即彼，加速市场化进程和加大政府创新扶持均会产生显著促进作用；②促进技术市场发育和加强知识产权保护对创新驱动产业结构升级有显著促进作用；③以贷款余额表示的金融发展并未对创新驱动产业结构升级产生显著性影响，表明存在金融错配，金融资本并未有效进入创新领域。

Institutional Basis of Industrial Structure Upgrading Driven by Innovation

In the new stage in which driving forces for economic growth depend on industrial structure upgrading driven by innovation,does institutional basis provide effective incentive for new driving forces? Based on inter-provincial data of China in 2009-2016,this paper adopts non-linear panel threshold model to empirically study the influence of five institutional factors including marketization,government innovation support,technical market development,financial development,and intellectual property protection on industrial structure upgrading driven by innovation.As found by the research：①The market and government do not exert impacts alternatively on industrial structure upgrading driven by innovation.Both accelerated marketization process and greater government innovation support would significantly promote this process.②Accelerating technical market development and reinforcing intellectual property protection plays a vital role in industrial structure upgrading driven by innovation.③Financial development indicated by loan balance does not generate any prominent influence on industrial structure upgrading driven by innovation,which can be evidenced by the existence of financial mismatch and the exclusion of financial capital from innovation field.