近20年重庆市老龄化格局的时空演变与驱动因素研究

为减轻人口老龄化进程加快对重庆市经济社会持续稳定发展产生的影响。基于最新的第七次人口普查数据及历年统计年鉴数据,应用空间自相关、地理探测器等研究方法,分析20年来重庆市人口老龄化的时序演变特征、空间演变特征及其驱动因素。结果表明：(1)人口老龄化进程不断加深,2000—2020年人口老龄化系数由8.84%增长至17.08%,逐步向深度老龄化社会迈进;(2)重庆市老龄化格局与经济发展水平呈现倒U形关系,老龄化的高值区由主城区向东北部演进,20年以来老龄化空间集聚特征增强,但集聚趋势逐渐放缓;(3)老龄化现象由人口因素与社会经济因素共同作用形成。主要驱动因素由医疗服务水平转变为人口惯性及人口出生率,各影响因素间交互作用显著。

Research on the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of the Aging Pattern in Chongqing in the Past 20 Years

In order to reduce the impact of the accelerated process of population aging on the sustainable and stable development of Economy of Chongqing''s economy and society. Based on the latest seventh population census data and historical statistical yearbook data, research methods such as spatial autocorrelation and geographic detectors was applied to analyze the temporal evolution characteristics, spatial evolution characteristics, and driving factors of population aging in Chongqing over the past 20 years. The process of population aging continues to deepen. The population aging coefficient increased from 8.84% to 17.08% from 2000 to 2020, gradually moving towards a deeply aging society The aging pattern and economic development level in Chongqing show an inverted "U" shaped relationship. The high-value areas of aging have evolved from the main urban area to the northeast. Over the past 20 years, the spatial agglomeration characteristics of aging have strengthened, but the agglomeration trend has gradually slowed down The phenomenon of aging is formed by the combined effects of demographic factors and socio-economic factors. The main driving factors have changed from the level of medical services to Population momentum and birth rate, and the interaction among the influencing factors is significant. The situation of population aging in Chongqing is severe, and multiple efforts are needed to alleviate the pressure of population aging.