From passenger growth to aircraft movements |
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| Institution: | 1. German Aerospace Center (DLR), Hamburg, Germany;2. Hamburg University of Technology, Hamburg, Germany;1. College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, PR China;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, SW7 2BU, UK;1. Transport & Mobility Leuven, Leuven, Belgium;2. KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium;3. Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel;1. School of General Engineering, Beihang University, 100191 Beijing, China;2. School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Beihang University, 100191 Beijing, China;1. Innaxis Research Institute, Madrid, Spain;2. Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal;3. Bahcesehir University, Istanbul, Turkey;4. Team&Cloud, Madrid, Spain;5. General Directorate of State Airports Authority (DHM?), Ankara, Turkey;6. Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey;7. Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey;1. School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom;2. CHORDS Research Group, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, United Kingdom;3. University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, North Jianshe Road, Sichuan 610054, China |
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| Abstract: | Airlines are able to deal with passenger growth by either increasing the frequency or the aircraft size, which may entail different numbers of aircraft movements. Forecasting the latter is necessary for evaluating technologies, approaching future emissions or anticipating capacity constraints. Purpose of this paper is to forecast a typical fleet mix and the growth of aircraft movements on flight segments worldwide based on an assumed passenger growth. The methodology is implemented in a model called Forecast of Aircraft Movements. Basic approach is the assignment of each flight segment worldwide to a distance, passenger number and aircraft category. For each combination of distance and passenger numbers a typical fleet mix is defined. The forecasted worldwide growth of passenger demand and the empirically determined fleet mix is applied to all segments in order to derive a future scenario. Assuming a certain seat load factor, the frequency growth can be deduced from the aircraft movements generated for all segments. The paper includes a forecast for aircraft movements in a future scenario based on real schedule and passenger data and gives a detailed overview of the methodology and results considering airlines' behaviour. |
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| Keywords: | Aircraft movements forecast Aircraft size Global passenger growth Fleet mix |
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