MLP框架下农业低碳转型路径的前因组态研究

低碳转型是推动农业可持续发展的重要实践，但现有研究缺乏对农业低碳转型路径的深入探讨。本文在社会-技术转型多层级（MLP）框架基础上，从微观利基层、中观体制层、宏观景观层三方面构建了农业低碳转型的理论模型，并运用必要性分析方法（NCA）和模糊集定性比较分析法（fsQCA）对中国31个省份（因数据缺失，不包含港澳台地区）案例数据进行分析，以探究农业低碳转型路径的前因组态。研究发现：(1)预设的6个前因条件均不构成高/低水平农业低碳转型的必要条件；(2)存在5条驱动高水平农业低碳转型的路径，具体分为两组，分别是“数字基础+数字金融”主导模式，“科研人力+机械投入”主导模式；(3)中国东中西部的农业低碳转型路径存在明显差异。研究不仅深化了对农业低碳转型理论机制的认识，也为农业低碳转型工作提供了政策建议和实践指导。

Research on antecedent configuration of agricultural low-carbon transformation path under MLP framework

Low carbon transformation is an important practice to promote the sustainable development of agriculture, but the existing research lacks in-depth discussion on the path of agricultural low carbon transformation. Based on the MLP framework, this paper constructs a theoretical model of agricultural low-carbon transformation from the three aspects of micro grass-roots level, meso system level and macro landscape level, and uses NCA and fsQCA to analyze the case data of 31 provinces in China, so as to explore the antecedent configuration of the path of agricultural low-carbon transformation. The results show that: (1) the six pre-set antecedents do not constitute the necessary conditions for the low-carbon transformation of high / low-level agriculture. (2) There are five paths to drive the low-carbon transformation of high-level agriculture, which are specifically divided into two groups: the leading mode of "digital foundation + Digital finance" and the leading mode of "scientific research manpower + machinery investment". (3) There are obvious differences in the path of agricultural low-carbon transformation in eastern, central and Western China. The research not only deepened the understanding of the theoretical mechanism of agricultural low-carbon transformation, but also provided policy suggestions and practical guidance for the work of agricultural low-carbon transformation.