结构变化、效率改进与能源需求预测——基于上海市经济增长与能源消耗协调发展的研究

本文对上海改革开放以来，尤其是1990年以来的经济增长状况、能源供应总量与结构状况、能源消耗总量与分配情况及节能情况进行分析，并通过构建计量模型时“十一五”时期全市经济增长状况、能源需求状况以及结构分配状况进行了预测分析，以此来考察各产业单位产值能耗的发展趋势及其偏高的多方面原因，包括结构变化、能源利用效率以及能源紧缺的瓶颈效应，最后将上海与全国的能源利用效率进行比较，并提出上海经济增长与能源消耗协调发展的对策措施。

Structural Changes, Efficiency Improvement and Energy Demand Forecasting: a Study on Shanghai's Economy

This paper analyzes the growth of Shanghai's economy,energy supply and its composition,energy consumption and its distribution and energy saving after the economic reform especially 1990.Then some economic models are set up to forecast Shanghai's economic growth,its total energy consumption and distribution in the 11th five-year,meanwhile the various reasons that why energy consumption of unit GDP is on the high side are studied,concretely including structural changes,energy efficiency improvement and the bottleneck effect.At last,the ratios of energy consumption between Shanghai and the whole country are compared,and some suggestions are put forward on the harmonious development between Shanghai's economy and energy consumption.