外商直接投资对中国技术进步效应的结构分析

以行业数据为基础的分析结果表明,外资对上海的直接技术进步效应大于外资对上海本地企业的技术溢出效应,而外资对上海本地企业的技术溢出效应大小又与外资进入的行业有关。分不同外资来源的分析结果表明,港澳台投资对上海的直接技术进步效应小于对上海本地企业的技术溢出效应,OECD投资对上海的直接技术进步效应大于对上海本地企业的技术溢出效应。从上海经验出发,我们认为,我国必须根据外资对我国本地企业的正向技术溢出效应大小,甄别和遴选外资来源、流入形式和进入行业,在若干难以明显获得外资正向技术溢出效应的领域,采用内资替代外资的投资政策,以增加我国资本要素的投资收益,减少GDP与GNP之间的差距,降低经济增长过程中的福利漏出。

FDI Effects on China's Technology Development: A Structural Analysis based on the Case of Shanghai

On the basis of sectors data, it has been found that the direct effects of FDI on Shanghai′s TFP development are stronger than the effects of FDI technology spillovers on Shanghai′s local enterprises. If we classify FDI into OECD′s and HTM′s based on the sources of FDI, it has been found that the direct effects on Shanghai′s TFP development of FDI from HTM are weaker than the effects of its technology spillovers on Shanghai′s local enterprises, but the direct effects of FDI from OECD compared with the effects of its technology spillovers are in the opposite way. The above results suggest that China should select the structure of FDI source, inflow mode and inflow sectors according to its TFP effects on China′s local enterprises.