EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration

This paper examines the economic effects of the opening of the Russian Federation. The analysis carried out in the paper is twofold. First we simulate the impact of the eastern enlargement of the EU and, second, we analyse how deeper integration between the EU and Russia contributes to this. The analysis is carried out with GTAP, a computable general equilibrium model. We find that there is a trade-off between the two roads of European integration arrangements. Eastern enlargement seems, even in its very deep form, be beneficial for all EU regions without causing substantial welfare losses outside the Union. EU–Russia integration, on the other hand, has different impact. To be beneficial for Russia free trade between the EU and Russia requires improved productivity in the latter, which may be due to better institutions or increased FDI. This might make the negotiations of the agreement cumbersome and if agreed its implementation difficult.This study stems from a project Opening of Russia in which the authors participated at RECEP in Moscow. This paper is substantially revised and updated version of Sulamaa, P. and Widgrén, M. (2003): EU Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and CIS Integration, CEPR Discussion Papers 3768. The authors thank Peter Havlik and Risto Vaittinen and an anonymous referee for beneficial comments on earlier drafts, Comments and discussions with Paavo Suni, Ivan Samson, Xavier Richet and Xavier Greffe are also gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.