“逆全球化”探源:基于双边投资协定深度决定因素的研究

近年来全球化进程受阻,“逆全球化”根源有待进一步探讨。本文首次利用贸发会议“IIA绘图”数据,构建涵盖101项关键条款的双边投资协定(BITs)深度评价体系,测算了全球2539份BITs深度数据。通过理论和实证研究发现,东道国区位优势和母国所有权优势是决定BITs深度的重要因素。具体来看,东道国劳动力和自然资源禀赋的区位优势对BITs深度具有显著抑制作用,母国资本、技术和制度质量的所有权优势对BITs深度具有显著促进作用,同时母国资本和技术水平对BITs深度的影响存在异质性。进一步研究表明,2008年金融危机后,东道国劳动力资源对BITs深度的抑制作用增强,母国资本和技术水平的促进作用减弱,导致世界经济呈现“逆全球化”趋势,提高母国制度质量是实现经济全球化发展的有效途径。

Probing into the Sources of Deglobalization:A Study Based on Determinants of the Depth of Bilateral Investment Treaties

In recent years, the process of globalization has been hindered, and the root causes of deglobalization need to be further explored. This paper firstly uses UNCTAD’s “IIA Mapping” data to estimate the depth of 2,539 Bilateral Investment Treaties(BITs) by developing an evaluation system which includes 101 key items. Through theoretical and empirical research, it is found that the depth of BITs is affected by the location advantages of the host country and the ownership advantages of the home country. Specifically, the location advantages of the host country in labor and natural resources have a significant inhibitory effect on the depth of BITs, while the ownership advantages of the home country in capital, technology and institutional quality have a significant promoting effect on it. At the same time, the influence of the home country’s capital and technology on the depth of BITs is heterogeneous. Further research shows that after the 2008 financial crisis, the inhibiting effect of the host country’s labor resources on the depth of BITs is significantly enhanced, while the promoting effect of the home country’s capital and technology is significantly decreased, leading to the deglobalization trend. Improving the home country’s institutional quality is an effective way to promote the development of economic globalization.