中等收入陷阱的成因假说、经验比较与对策研究

文章对一国经济发展滞于中等收入陷阱的形成原因进行梳理归纳,认为其成因主要可分为生产率下滑假说、增长转型失败假说及收入分配状况恶化假说。在理论假设基础上,对部分成功跨越与未能成功跨越中等收入陷阱的国家发展经验进行比较,发现在生产率差异、收入分配差距差异、产业结构转型差异及技术创新能力差异等维度,两类国家均呈现出明显不同。文章认为,中国经济进入人均国民收入超4000美元的中高等收入阶段后,经济增长也面临成本上升、收入分配差距恶化及转型困难等增长减速风险,并提出了对应的政策建议。

On the Hypothesis of Causes,Experience Comparison and Countermeasures About Middle Income Trap

This paper summarizes and induces the different causes by which a country＇s economic growth is trapped in the middle income trap, and categorizes them into three hypothesis, i.e. TFP descending, failure of economic transition, and deterioration of income allocation. Furthermore, this paper compares the development experience of countries both past through MIT successfully and unsuccessfully, and finds that two kinds of countries have evidently difference in TEP, income allocation, industry structure transition and technological innovation. China has been into the middle-high income stage with GNI per capita over 4,000 dollars, while its economic growth is facing the risk of slowing down, caused by cost arising, income gap expanding and difficulty in economic transition, this paper gives responding policy suggestion.