中国的环境污染与经济增长

中国经济经历三十多年高速增长,但环境质量也日趋恶化。本文利用112座城市在2003—2010年间的大气污染浓度数据,考察我国经济增长和环境污染之间的关系。与以往研究不同的是,基于传统的环境库兹涅茨曲线模型,我们发现所有的大气污染浓度指标都呈现出"U形"曲线关系。但是在考虑了每个城市特定的时间趋势变量后,高增长并不一定会导致高污染。最后,通过对同一污染物的排放数据和大气浓度数据进行对比分析,发现两者的回归结果截然相反。

China's Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth

China has experienced more than three decades of rapid growth, but suffers from severe environmental degradation. This paper uses latest panel dataset covering 112 cities from 2003 to 2010 to test the relationship between growth and air pollution. Using traditional environmental Kuznets model, we find that all pollutants exhibit "U shaped" curve, which are radically different from the results found by previous studies. By controlling individual time trend, we show that growth does not have to deteriorate the environment. Finally, we also show that regression results could be completely opposite if we use different data source for the same pollutant.