外国直接投资与我国对外贸易失衡

我国与美国、欧盟的贸易顺差增大,外汇储备激增,原因错综复杂,其中,在我国改革开放和特殊的工业化进程中,经济全球化和国际分工加速发展,世界产业结构大调整,外国直接投资持续增加才是根本原因。由于外国直接投资对我国贸易顺差存在着两种效应:直接效应和间接影响,即外国直接投资对我国产生明显的贸易创造效应,同时又具有一定的贸易替代效应,间接增加了贸易顺差,从而加剧了我国的贸易失衡。本文运用协整检验,建立误差修正模型,验证了外国直接投资与我国贸易顺差存在长期均衡关系,即正相关关系。只有从生产领域和外商投资的角度入手才能从根本上缓解贸易顺差的扩大。

Foreign Direct Investment and China's Foreign Trade Imbalance

Currently,the trade surplus of China-US and China-Europe have been increasing rapidly,China's foreign exchange reserve also has been increasing sharply. The reasons for the increase are complicated. Among them,with the steps of China's Reform and Opening-up and the process of industrialization,the deepening of economic globalization and international division of labor,and the adjustment of world industrial structure,the continuous increase of FDI is the basis one. In view of the two effects of FDI on trade surplus -direct effect and indirect effect,namely,FDI has trade creation effect and trade substitution effect,which indirectly increase trade surplus,they intensified China's trade imbalance. Through co-integration test and an error correction model(ECM),this paper examines the relationship between FDI and trade surplus,and the empirical results show that there exists a long equilibrium positive correlation between FDI and trade surplus. Finally,this paper suggests that the enlargement of trade surplus could be effectively relaxed only from the view of production field and foreign investment.