通缩魅影

在通缩还没有从生产领域传导到整个经济时，必须果断地放松货币政策，真正把实际利率降下来。

The Shadow of Deflation

The inflation will erode the people’s wealth and decrease the consumers’ purchasing power.The hyperinflation may even destroy the whole economy.Therefore,many economics textbooks refer to the hyperinflation occurring in Germany after World War One to indicate the harms of inflation,and central banks usually take inflation control as a major objective.Few people regard the deflation as a great threat.But the deflation can be more risky than the inflation.In fact,the Great Depression in 1929 was accompanied by the deflation all the time.Milton Friedman,winner of the 1976 Nobel Prize,thought it was the US Federal Reserve which did not issue more currencies in time that brought about the deflation.In tackling the 2008 financial woes,the Federal Reserve defeated the coming deflation by releasing lots of fluidities.The Chinese economy is slowing down,and the deflation may appear.Although the CPI rose at a year-on-year rate of 2.2% in June,the PPI has declined for four months.In China,the continuous decline of PPI always drags down the CPI.This means that the deflation in industries tends to bring a deflation in the whole economy.It is necessary for China to prevent the deflation.To do this,the relaxation of currency policies and the depreciation of RMB may help.