我国各省与全国经济景气的同步性研究(1953—2004)

文章选择了能够反映经济景气的GDP增长指数、固定资产投资名义增长率、CPI、商品零售价格指数等指标对我国各省与全国进行了相关分析 ,得出 :( 1 )全国、各省 1 978年以来经济都实现了较好的增长 ,但是欠发达地区平均增长速度慢于全国 ,更慢于发达地区 ,相对于广东当年GDP的比重下降。 ( 2 )各省经济景气趋势的离散程度不一 ,一般发达省份振幅大、离散程度高 ,欠发达省份振幅小、离散程度低。 ( 3 )绝大部分省与全国经济景气循环的相关性强 ,基本同步。其中 ,物价变动相关性最高 ,固定资产投资名义增长、工业增加值增长相关性次之 ,GDP增长相关性再次之。产业间表现为第二产业增长指数变动相关性最高 ,第三产业次之 ,第一产业基本不相关。各项指标发达省份与全国的相关性一般高于欠发达省份。最后文章分析了统一的宏观调控对区域差距的可能影响 ,并从宏观调控方面提出了相应的对策建议

The Difference of Economic Climates between China and Its Provinces:Correlation Analysis of the Indicators 1953—2004

By analyzing the correlation among the indicators reflecting the economic climate in China and its provinces in the periods of 1953—2002 and 1978—2002, such as GDP growth index, capital assets nominal growth rate, CPI, RPI, the author makes the following conclusions: (1) Since 1978, China and its provinces realized fast economic growth, while the average growth rates in under developing area are lower than that of China, and much lower than that of the developed areas, and the ratio of GDP in other provinces to that of Guangdong province in that year decreases. (2) The economic climate in China and its provinces differ in standard deviation, generally the developed provinces swing greatly with high standard deviation, and the under developed provinces swing slightly with low standard deviation. (3) Most provinces have close correlation of economic climate with China and they are almost synchronized. Among which, the price changes have the highest correlation following by the nominal growth of the investment in capital asset and value added in industry, with the GDP growth behind. Concerning the industries, the growth indices in the secondary industry correlate closest followed by the tertiary and the primary industry. The correlation in the indicators of developed provinces and China are higher than those of under developed provinces. In the end, the paper analyses the possible influence from the unified macro regulatory policy and proposes corresponding countermeasures on how the macro regulation harmonize unification and differentiation.