基于DAF的煤矿风险预警模型研究及应用

为降低煤矿事故率,改变传统煤矿风险预警模式,使用DAF(德尔菲法、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法)对煤矿安全生产状态进行评价。通过德尔菲法调查分析影响煤矿安全生产的指标因素,选取其中关键性的34项指标来构建预警指标体系,利用层次分析法计算各指标权重,结合模糊数学理论,运用模糊综合评价法进行综合评价,判断出煤矿的安全状态,建立煤矿风险预警模型,并结合实际案例验证其可行性。结果表明,通过模型的数值计算,可以直观判断煤矿的安全生产状态,达到提前预测预警,减少煤矿生产事故发生的目的。

Research and application of coal mine safety warning model based on DAF

In order to reduce the coal mine accident rate, and change the traditional coal mine risk assessment and early warning model, the DAF (Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy theory) is used to evaluate the coal mine safety production status. Delphi method is used for analysis of factors affecting coal mine safety production, and 34 key indexes are selected to build coal mine safety early-warning index system. Analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the weight of each index. By combing fuzzy mathematic theory, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to comprehensively assess and judge the safety status of coal mines. Then the coal mine risk assessment and early warning model is built, and the feasibility is proved through actual cases. The results show that the calculation of the model can be used to determine the safety production status, which helps control and reduce coal mine accidents effectively.