| 基于时间序列模型在物流需求预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 田根平,曾应昆.基于时间序列模型在物流需求预测中的应用[J].物流科技,2007,30(9):96-99. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田根平 曾应昆 |
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| 作者单位： | 昆明理工大学,云南,昆明,650224 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用时间序列模型进行物流需求预测，用实例从数据平稳性的判断，平稳化、标准化，建模，经模型的识别、定价、参数估计和检验，到预测及误差和置信区间的计算，详细地说明了时间序列模型在物流需求预测中是如何应用的。结果表明该ARMA模型能够较好地拟合并可获得较高的中短期预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 物流 物流需求预测 时间序列模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-3100（2007）09-0096-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-01-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-11 |
Application of Logistics Requirement Forecast Based on Time-series |
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| TIAN Gen-ping,ZENG Ying-kun.Application of Logistics Requirement Forecast Based on Time-series[J].Logistics Management,2007,30(9):96-99. |
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| Authors: | TIAN Gen-ping ZENG Ying-kun |
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| Institution: | Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650224, China |
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| Abstract: | We carry on logistics demand forecast by taking time-series model and explain its application
to logistics demand forecast by justment of data stationary,stead,standardization,modeling,
discernment,making steps.parameter estimate and examination to predict,error and calculation
of confidential interval.The reason shows that the ARMA model can fit and get better prediction accuracy in the medium and short-time term. |
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| Keywords: | logistics logistics requirement forecasting time-series model |
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