An update on Bayesian updating |
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| Authors: | Charles A. Holt Angela M. Smith |
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| Affiliation: | 1. University of Mainz, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Germany;2. University of Zurich, Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | This paper reports an experiment in which subjects are asked to assess probabilities for unknown events, with treatments that vary the extremity of the prior information. Probabilities are elicited using a Becker–DeGroot–Marshak procedure that does not depend on assumptions about risk aversion. The focus is on the pattern of biases in information processing. |
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