从外贸收支的影响因素看我国经济政策的调整——基于协整检验与冲击分解的实证分析

采用协整检验和冲击分解的方法，实证分析了我国外贸收支的影响因素及其影响程度。结果表明，从长期来看，人民币实际有效汇率的变化对中国外贸收支没有明显的影响，而国外实际收入和外商直接投资才是决定外贸收支的主要因素。因此，人民币缓慢升值不仅难以解决目前我国外贸收支的顺差问题，而且其引起的预期效应进一步加剧了我国国际收支的不平衡，所以，我国经济政策的重点应转向调控外商直接投资的规模及其结构上来。

On Change of China's Economic Policies in View of Influential Factors of Trade Balance——An Empirical Analysis Based on Co-integration Test and Variance Decomposition

The paper makes an empirical analysis of the influential factors and degrees of China's foreign trade balance on the basis of co-integration test and variance decomposition.The results indicate that the fluctuations in the RMB real effective exchange rate have no obvious effect on China's trade balance in the long run;however,foreign real income and foreign direct investment(FDI) are the main factors in determining trade balance.So the slow appreciation of RMB not only cannot solve the problems of China's trade surplus,but the expected effect caused by it will further intensify the disequilibrium in China's balance of payments.China's economic policies should be changed to control the scale and structure of FDI.