设立国家级贫困县能提升当地农民收入水平吗——基于2007~2016年中国296个县面板数据的实证研究

中国自1986年实施贫困县制度以来,国家级贫困县的设立是否能够以及在多大程度上提升了当地农民实际收入水平,需要进行系统科学的实证检验。基于双重差分倾向得分匹配法（PSM-DID）,利用2007~2016年全国6个省份296个县的面板数据进行实证研究发现,国家级贫困县的设立非但没能有效提升当地农民实际收入水平,反而对其有持续的负效应。进一步研究发现,贫困地区第二、三产业的发展能够有效提高当地农民实际收入水平,然而贫困县政策并未促进当地产业结构的优化;政府通过正向干预农产品价格能有效增加农民实际收入。从研究结论的政策含义讲,立足贫困户推进精准扶贫、通过招商引资带动有效投资,以及优化县域产业结构,对于提升贫困县的农民收入具有重要现实意义。

Does the Establishment of National Poverty-stricken Counties Increase the Income Level of Local Farmers-An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data of 296 Counties in China from 2007 to 2016

Since the implementation of the poverty-stricken county system in China in 1986, whether and to what extent the establishment of national poverty-stricken counties can raise the real income level of local farmers requires an systematic and scientific empirical test. Based on propensity score matching-difference in difference (PSM-DID) methods, using the panel data of 296 counties in six provinces of China from 2007 to 2016, it is found that the establishment of national poverty-stricken counties failed to effectively improve the real income level of local farmers.On the contrary, it has a sustained negative effect. Further research has found that the development of secondary and tertiary industries in poverty-stricken areas can effectively raise the real income level of local farmers, but the policy of poverty-stricken counties has not optimized the local industrial structure; the government can effectively increase farmers' real income by intervening in the price of agricultural products. From the policy implication of the research conclusion, it is of great practical significance to promote precise poverty alleviation based on poor households, promote effective investment through attracting external investment, and optimize county industrial structure for enhancing farmers' income in poverty-stricken counties.