城市化、城市集中度与人力资本积累――基于省级面板数据的实证研究

鉴于人力资本对经济增长的作用日显重要，人们希望知道哪些因素显著影响到人力资本，其中城市化水平、城市集中度等通过经济集聚强度而明显影响人力资本积累。城市化通过刺激人力资本供给与需求，创造良好的人力资本投资环境而促进人力资本积累，城市集中度提高带来的规模优势与外部不经济双重效应使其对人力资本积累具有两面性。依据2000—2015年我国30个省(直辖市、自治区)的面板数据，考虑省份之间的异质性及空间相依性，分别建立非线性面板模型和空间杜宾模型开展实证分析。结果表明：城市化水平与人力资本积累高度正相关，城市化对人力资本积累产生显著的促进效应；城市集中度与人力资本之间存在倒U型关系，不同地区城市集中度对人力资本的影响效应存在明显差异；城市化、城市集中度对人力资本的影响效应具有较强的稳健性。结论对于推动城市与区域经济高质量发展具有启示意义。

Urbanization,Urban Concentration and Human Capital Accumulation:Empirical Analysis by Panel Data of Provinces

Human capital plays an increasingly important role in economic growth. Urbanization, urban concentration and other factors influence the accumulation of human capital based on the intensity of economic agglomeration. Urbanization stimulates supply and demand of human capital, and creates favorable investment environment to promote human capital accumulation. Because of the co-existence of scale advantage and external diseconomy, the increase of urban concentration has double effects on human capital accumulation. Considering the heterogeneity and spatial dependence of provinces, empirical analysis is carried out by the nonlinear panel data model and spatial Durbin model according to panel data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2015. The results show that urbanization has a significant promoting effect on human capital accumulation. There is an inverted U relationship between urban concentration and human capital. It shows obvious differences about the effect of urban concentration on human capital in four regions. The impact of urbanization and urban concentration on human capital is robust. The conclusions have enlightenments for promoting highquality development of urban and regional economy.