基于熵权法和灰色关联分析的国际BOT水电投资风险评价

通过建立国际BOT水电项目的 10个风险评价指标,运用熵权法定量确定指标权重,借鉴TOPSIS方法的思想,分别考察各项目与正、负理想方案间的关联程度并予以集成,构建基于熵权法和TOPSIS思想的灰色关联决策模型,对国际BOT水电项目投资风险进行评价。选取了5个典型的国际BOT项目进行实证分析,结果表明,该方法能客观有效地对国际BOT水电项目的风险进行分析;国际BOT水电项目的风险指标中地质灾害风险、征地移民风险、施工风险和经济与合同风险的权重较大,而政府信用风险、基础设施风险对于都处于相对落后地区的项目影响较小。最后由灰色关联决策模型对5个项目的投资风险进行分析、排序。

Risk assessment of international BOT hydropower investment based on entropy method and grey correlation analysis

By establishing ten risk evaluation indices for an international BOT hydropower project, the weight of each index is quantitatively determined by using the entropy method. Based on the TOPSIS method, the positive and negative degrees of association from each project to the ideal solution are investigated and integrated. Thus a decision model of grey correlation method based on the entropy and TOPSIS is established to evaluate the investment risk of the international BOT hydropower project. Five typical international BOT projects are selected to make empirical analysis. The results show that the risks of international BOT hydropower projects can be analyzed by the proposed method effectively and objectively. The geological disaster risk, land acquisition risk, construction risk and economy and contract risk of international BOT hydropower projects have larger weights, while the government credit risk and infrastructure project risk have less effect owing to the relatively backward areas. Finally, the investment risks of five projects are analyzed and sorted by using the grey correlation decision model.