全国主粮作物减产风险评估与保险费率厘定研究

《关于加快农业保险高质量发展的指导意见》对开展农业保险风险区划提出了具体要求.本研究针对水稻、小麦、玉米三大主粮作物,利用作物模型集合模拟器、配合县级历史单产统计数据,使用单产时空融合方法还原了1991～2016年全国10 km栅格水平的单产损失率,厘定了保险纯风险损失率和大灾风险附加费率.结果 显示,在100％保障水...

Risk Assessment of Yield Loss and Insurance Premium Rating for Staple Crops in China

The Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the High-quality Development of Agricultural Insurance put forward specific requirements on the agricultural insurance risk regionalizing.Focusing on three major staple crops in China, namely rice, wheat and maize, this study reconstructed historical yield records(1991-2016) at finer scales(10 km) by spatial-temporal fusion of county-level statistical yield and simulation yield derived from crop model emulator ensembles.From the yield dataset, this study computed the pure risk loss ratio and the loading for catastrophes.Our results shows that at the 100% coverage level, the average pure risk loss ratios at the 10-km grids are 3.8%(rice),5.9%(wheat) and 5.8%(maize),and the standard deviations are 3.1%(rice),3.7%(wheat) and 3.4%(maize),respectively.If setting up insurance pools at the national level, the catastrophic loading factors are 0.85(rice),0.64(wheat) and 0.7(maize),respectively, for catastrophes rare in 20 years.The method developed in this paper effectively solves the problems of time series interpolation and spatial downscaling, and can provide the results with the finer spatial resolution to support the rate making at different administrative level.This method has strong flexibility that can be used to calculate the rates of any coverage level according to practical requirements.The results of this paper can provide an important quantitative basis and technical support for the new round of agricultural insurance risk regionalization.