我国证券分析师预测的有效性研究

以国内证券分析师的盈利预测报告为对象,以2007年—2009年间上市公司数据为基础,采用回归等方法对分析师预测市场的有效性进行研究。结果表明：国内分析师队伍整体实力仍然欠缺,而且良莠不齐;分析师的短期预测行为较为有效,而且预测值和实际值之间的相关性较强,但长期预测的准确度则有待考虑;分析师对于预测行为已经进行了大幅度调整,但效果不明显,主要是针对前两次的盈利调整对于提高预测准确度没有很大帮助,预测准确性最高的普遍集中在年内最后一季度对该年度的评价分析。实证结果为我国投资者正确使用分析师预测报告提供了一定的参考依据。

The Research on Predicting Effectiveness of China's Security Analysts

Based on the data of China＇s listed companies from 2007 to 2009,the paper studies the predictions＇ effectiveness of domestic security analysts around earnings forecast reports,used regression method.The results shows that the overall of the domestic analysts is still lack of strength,and there is a large gap between the good and the bad.The short-term predict of analysts is more effective,and there is a strong correlation between the forecasting value and the actual value.The accuracy of the long-term forecast is not so proper.Analysts have been carried out for pre-adjust of large changes,but the effect is not obvious.It is mainly helpful to improve forecasts＇ accuracy by the evaluation and analysis in the last quarter of the year.The results of this paper provide an important reference evidence for investors.