泰勒规则及其在中国的适应性分析

通过介绍泰勒规则的基本模型及理论扩展，对泰勒规则的特点进行了评述，并结合中国实际，展望了泰勒规则在中国的应用前景。结果认为，泰勒规则抓住了货币政策的本质意图，可以作为货币政策操作的理论依据和参考基准。鉴于中国利率市场化进程的滞后和利率传导机制的低效性，目前泰勒规则在中国的实施和应用还受到一定的限制。随着利率市场化的推进与利率弹性的增大，利率有可能成为中国货币政策的中介目标。

Taylor Rule and Its Applicability in China

This paper introduces the basic model and theoretical development of Taylor rule,reviews the characteristics of Taylor rule and analyzes the applicability of Taylor rule in China according to Chinese condition and practice.The Taylor rule captures the essential factors affecting the monetary policy and can become the theoretical basis and referenced measure.On account of the lag of marketlization interest rate and the inefficiency of conduct of interest rate channel in China,Taylor rule cannot be applied to China.However,with the advance of interest rate marketlization and the increase of elasticity in interest rate,interest rate will be more appropriate to be the intermediate target of monetary policy in China.