自组织临界视角下股价波动的动力学机制研究——来自中国快递行业的经验数据

基于自组织临界性视角,探讨了中国A股上市快递行业股票价格波动的内在动力学机制,对四家上市快递公司股票和快递行业综合指数的价格波动进行了统计分析。结果表明,中国快递行业股票价格波动具有自组织临界性,股票价格具有长程相关性;中国A股上市快递行业正处于良性发展过程中;基于快递行业面临服务质量低和粗放式发展的内在问题,以及政府加强监管的外在考验,从沙堆模型的角度,提出了快递行业应该主动进行行业转型和保持行业自律的建议。

Study on the Dynamic Mechanism of Stock Price Fluctuation from the Perspective of Self-organization Criticality——Experience data from China express industry

Based on self-organizing criticality perspective, this paper probes into the internal dynamics mechanism of stock price fluctuation in China A-share market, and attempts to analyze the stock price fluctuation of the four listed express companies and the express industry composite index respectively. The results indicate that the fluctuation of stock price in Chinese express industry has self-organized criticality, and the stock price has long range correlation; it also shows that China''s A-share listed express industry is in a process of benign development; based on that the express industry is faced with not only the inner problem of low service quality and extensive development but the external test of government strengthening supervision, it puts forward that the express industry should take the initiative to shift and maintain industry self-discipline from the perspective of sand-pile model.