关于贸易和汇率间相互引导关系的实证分析及启示

针对在我国究竟是贸易引导汇率和资本流动，还是汇率引导贸易和资本流动这一争议，文章采用计量分析的方式进行了实证检验。实证结果显示，在这三个变量中，贸易差额居于至关重要的地位，其变化引导着人民币汇率变动和跨境资本流动。因此，要缓解我国资本流入的压力，保持人民币在合理水平上的基本均衡，必须从根本上加快转变经济发展方式，减少经济发展对“净出口”的依赖，实现进出口贸易的基本平衡，同时加快推进资本项目可兑换，便利企业“走出去”进行全球投资，并加快推进汇率形成机制改革。

An empirical analysis on the interaction between trade and exchange rate

In China, on the controversy of whether trade causes exchange rate move and capital flow, or exchange rate move causes trade and capital flow, the article gives an empirical analysis with Granger causality test, and reveals that the balance of trade is the Granger cause, and its change guides RMB exchange rate move and cross-border capital flow. In order to relax the pressure of capital inflow and keep RMB exchange rate basically stable at an equilibrium level, China has to accelerate the shift of the growth pattern radically, decrease the reliance on net export, achieve the basic equilibrium of foreign trade, improve the capital account convertibility to facilitate enterprises＇ outward investments, and advance the RMB exchange rate regime reform.