| 我国跨境资金流动趋势识别及影响因素实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡国正,钟升,贺涛.我国跨境资金流动趋势识别及影响因素实证研究[J].中国货币市场,2014(4):37-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡国正 钟升 贺涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家外汇管理局重庆外汇管理部国际收支处 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章基于银行代客跨境收支数据，构建交易性、投资性收支指标，采取趋势移动平均方式，对不同方向、不同性质跨境资金流动趋势进行测量、分析、判断，对我国跨境资金流动趋势影响因素、不同时期内跨境资金流动影响机制变化等进行实证研究，并从外汇管理角度提出需关注的重点及相关建议，为加强跨境资金流动监测分析、防范跨境资金流动风险、推进外汇管理改革提供决策参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 跨境资金流动 因素分析 实证研究 |
A study on identifying cross-border fund flow trend and contributory factors |
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| Hu Guozheng,Zhong Sheng,He Tao.A study on identifying cross-border fund flow trend and contributory factors[J].China Money,2014(4):37-44. |
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| Authors: | Hu Guozheng Zhong Sheng He Tao |
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| Institution: | 1.Deputy Director, Balance of Payments Office, Chongqing Foreign Exchange Administration Department, State Administration of Foreign Exchange ;2. Section Chief, Balance of Payments Office, Chongqing Foreign Exchange Administration Department, State Administration of Foreign Exchange ;3. Senior Staff, Balance of Payments Office, Chongqing Foreign Exchange Administration Department, State Administration of Foreign Exchange) |
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| Abstract: | Based on cross-border payments data of banks, the article establishes trading and investment payments indicators. By using moving average trend-line, the article measures and analyzes the trends of cross-border fund flows in China from different directions and natures of the flows, and conducts empirical study on the factors influencing cross-border fund flows and the action mechanisms in different periods. From the perspective of foreign exchange administration, the article raises the key concerns and suggestions to strengthen cross-border fund flow monitoring, guard against cross-border fund flow risk and promote foreign exchange administration reform. |
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| Keywords: | cross-border fund flow factor analysis empiricalstudy |
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