人民币汇率形成机制探索

本文分析了人民币汇率形成机制与特点，指出了现行汇率制度存在的缺陷，说明在我国金融进一步开放的背景下，汇率制度的重新选择是我国汇率制度的内在要求，并对我国汇率制度选择路径进行了分析。指出从短期来看，“不可能三角理论”揭示了在资本管制的情况下，我国汇率制度的选择是维持汇率的稳定；从中长期来看，资本项目开放是大势所趋，汇率目标区是中国金融进一步开放中比较适合的汇率制度，也符合中国渐进式的发展改革道路；最后进一步从中心汇率和波动区间的确定、汇率干预等方面提出了实施汇率目标区的具体设想。

Explore of RMB Exchange Rate Regime

The paper analyses RMB exchange rate regime and characteristic, and points out the present regime＇s shortcomings. It concludes that reorientation of the exchange regime is a intrinsic request in the background of financial market＇s further opening-up, and analyses the route of the reorientation of RMB exchange regime. In short term, the principle of impossible trinity tells us we should keeps RMB exchange rate; in the long term, exchange rate target zone system is more suitable to our country and it is also in line with the development of the gradual reform process in our country. At las4 the paper further points out the detailed suggestions to adopt exchange rate target zone from the view of the central exchange rate, the determination of variation zone and exchange rate intervention.