资本投资、国际贸易与中国经济增长的动态研究

采用时间序列分析方法,研究了1985-2003年中国固定资产投资、进出口与经济增长之间的动态关系。研究结果表明,GDP与投资和进出口之间不存在协整关系,即变量之间并不存在稳定的长期均衡关系。脉冲—响应函数分析以及方差分解分析表明,出口和投资在短期内对GDP增长具有重要的正面影响,而进口在短期内对产出会产生负面影响,但经过一定时期后,进口的正面作用逐渐显现。这些研究结果与新古典模型关于资本深化以及内生增长理论关于进口的论断是一致的。

Dynamic Research on Capital Investment, Trade, and China''''s Economic Growth

This paper examines the time-series behavior of fixed-capital investment, exports, imports and output in China from 1985 to 2003. Co-integration test shows that no long-run relation exists between these variables. Impulse-response analysis and variance decompositions indicate that investment growth rate and export growth rate have significant short-run effects on economic growth rate. These findings are consistent with the predictions of some features of Solow growth model and endogenous theory.