工业化、城镇化在农业现代化进程中的门槛效应研究

本文从二元经济增长模型推出两个命题假设:工业化带动农业现代化,城市化提高农业生产效率。应用面板门槛模型考察了我国工业化、城市化在农业现代化进程中的门槛效应。根据门槛水平对我国各地区工业化、城市化发展程度做出归类,证实了我国城镇化进程长期滞后于工业化进程的现实。将实证研究与现实相结合进行分析后认为,我国"工业化、城镇化和农业现代化"协调发展的长期战略和短期策略都需要更着力地推进城镇化。

A Research on Threshold Effects of Industrialization and Urbanization on the Process of Agricultural Modernization

This paper derives two hypotheses based on a growth model of dual economy: Industrialization promoting agricultural modernization & Urbanization improving agricultural productivity.A Panel Threshold Model has been applied to study the threshold effects of industrialization and urbanization on the process of agricultural modernization.This research classifies the levels of industrialization and urbanization among China’s provinces,which provides references for the coordinative development of regional agriculture.This paper also confirmed actual dilemma of urbanization falling behind industrialization.This research proposes suggestions after we combined empirical analysis with historical reality: China should accelerate efforts to promote urbanization,which should be long-term strategy and short-term tactics for coordinative development of industrialization and urbanization and agricultural modernization in China.