我国产险公司财务恶化预警——基于Logistic模型

如何准确评估保险公司财务并对财务恶化进行正确的预警．一直是国内外学界、业界及监管机构关注的热点问题之一。本文采用我国产险公司2002～2005年数据，通过Logistic模型找出对产险公司财务状况具有显着影响的各种因素．并利用事前概率与预测概率辨别出财务状况异常的产险公司，在错误成本允许的条件下，寻求最佳的监管资源配置。实证结果表明．在不同的监管标准下，衡量产险公司财务影响因素的显著程度有所差异。模型受检值以事前概率为标准较预测概率为好．且受检值的大小将会影响产险公司财务状况预测的结果。

A Study on Insurance Finance Pre-warning of Property-Liability Insurance Company -- Based on Logistic Model

In insurance finance analysis, how to evaluate strength and furthermore to Pre-warn financial distress is widely concerned for a long time. In this research, based on data information of insurance industry from 2002 to 2005, This paper employs the performance of the Logistic model in predicting insolvency and detecting variables that have a statistically significant impact on the finance affairs the propertyliability insurance industry, using Prior probability and predictive probability to identify financial distress insurance company. Through comparing misclassification cost, author finds the best method to allocate regulatory resources. The empirical findings of this study indicate that there exists significant differential financial variables as measurement factors in different the standard with P/L insurance company. Prior probability method can identify financial distress better than predictive probability model, and the cut-off value to determine is impact on predicting the P/L insurance company.