基于演化博弈的成都外环铁路运营模式选择研究

铁路运营模式选择的实质是相关利益主体之间的利益博弈,不同铁路运营模式选择直接影响铁路的建设成本和运营收入。在界定铁路自主运营和委托运营2种模式内涵、优劣势的基础上,分析影响铁路运营模式选择的内外部因素,构建四川省和地方铁路局集团公司之间的演化博弈模型,并对成都外环铁路运营模式选择进行研究。结果发现:四川省和地方铁路局集团公司之间的博弈存在{委托运营,支持}{自主运营,不支持}{自主运营,支持}3种演化稳定均衡结果,这意味着成都外环铁路近期适宜选择委托地方路局运营的模式,中长期适宜采用自主运营模式。研究结论能为成都外环铁路运营模式的选择提供决策参考,有助于成都外环铁路选择合理的运营模式。

Research on Operation Mode Selection for Outer Ring Railways of Chengdu Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

The selection of railway operation modes is fundamentally the interest game between relevant stakeholders,and different choices directly affect the construction costs and operating income of railways.This paper defined the connotations,advantages,and disadvantages of two modes,namely independent railway operation and entrusted operation,and analyzed the internal and external influencing factors of railway operation mode selection.On this basis,this paper constructed an evolutionary game model between the railway group of Sichuan Province and the local railway group and studied the operation mode selection of outer ring railways of Chengdu.The results show that there are three evolutionary stable equilibrium results in the game between the two groups:{entrusted operation,support},{independent operation,do not support},and{independent operation,support}.This indicates that the mode of entrusted operation of the local railway group is suitable for outer ring railways of Chengdu in the short term,and the independent operation mode is the best choice in the medium and long term.This study can provide a decision-making reference for the operation mode selection of outer ring railways of Chengdu and help select a reasonable operation mode.