市场结构与实际汇率——理论模型和对人民币／美元实际汇率的经验分析

文章在一个存在垄断竞争的两国动态一般均衡模型中分析市场结构变化对实际汇率长期趋势的影响,结论认为,本国可贸易品和不可贸易品市场垄断程度上升会导致本币实际升值,而外国可贸易品和不可贸易品市场垄断程度上升会导致本币实际贬值。对人民币/美元实际汇率和中美两国市场垄断程度关系的实证分析基本验证了模型的结论。文章建议,可以通过拆分重组、发展民营企业、引进外资企业等方式引入竞争、降低垄断程度,从而缓解部分人民币升值压力。

Market Structure and Real Exchange Rate——A Theoretical Model and an Empirical Analysis on RMB/dollar Real Exchange Rate

Based on a dynamic general equilibrium model between two countries with the assumption of monopoly competition,the paper analyzes the effect of the change of market structure on real exchange rate.The results show that the increase of market-monopoly level both in domestic tradable and non-tradable sectors results in real appreciation of home currency,while the increase of market-monopoly level both in foreign tradable and non-tradable sectors leads to real depreciation of home currency.The empirical analysis on the relation between RMB/dollar real exchange rate and market-monopoly levels both in China and USA basically verifies these results.Therefore,the paper suggests that the present pressure of RMB appreciation could ease off by ways of reorganizing,developing private-owned enterprises and introducing foreign firms,which bring in competition and reduce monopoly.