中国森林公园旅游发展协调性测度研究

选取2013、2015和2017年数据应用三阶段DEA模型对中国31个省级行政区森林公园旅游发展协调性进行计算,分析随机因素和环境因素对协调性的影响及调整前和调整后数据的差异性。结合局部空间自相关分析方法,借助ArcGIS软件对计算结果进行可视化处理,研究森林公园旅游协调度空间分布特征。研究表明:环境因素和随机因素对中国森林公园旅游发展协调性呈现负影响;中国森林公园旅游发展协调度均值为0.771,森林公园旅游发展处于协调等级呈现聚集现象,处于失调等级呈现分散现象,协调度高低与地区经济发达程度无关;局部空间自相关分析省级行政区协调性发展与相邻省级行政区协调性发展的关联程度,在31个省级行政区未出现“H-H”区域和“L-L”区域,位于“L-H”区域有上海和天津两个城市,“H-L”区域只有甘肃省,说明随着森林旅游行业发展,各省间差距逐渐减少。

A Study on the Measurement of the Coordination of Tourism Development in China's Forest Parks

⑴Background——As an important carrier of forest tourism,forest park is in a period of rapid development.It is of great significance to study the coordination of tourism development in China's forest parks for the formulation of tourism management policies and sustainable development about China's forest parks.⑵Methods——Based on the China forestry statistical yearbook,the three-year data of 2013,2015 and 2017 are selected and the Three-stage DEA model is applied to analyze the coordination of forest park tourism development in 31 provinces and cities of China.Combined with the method of local spatial autocorrelation analysis,the results are visualized by ArcGIS software,and the spatial distribution characteristics of tourism coordination degree of forest park are studied.⑶Results——By three-stage DEA calculation,compared with the first stage value,the comprehensive efficiency value increased from 0.738 to 0.771.Environmental factors and random factors have negative effects on the coordination of tourism development in China's forest parks.The degree of coordination has been reduced and improved to a certain extent after eliminating the two influences.The average coordination degree of China's forest park tourism development is 0.771,accounting for 77.4%of 31 provinces and cities in China,and 12.9%of China's forest park tourism development is in a state of maladjusted development,and the coordination degree of Northeast forest park tourism development is the largest,with a value of 0.845.The development of forest park tourism in the coordination level shows the phenomenon of aggregation,and in the imbalance level shows the phenomenon of dispersion,the level of coordination has nothing to do with the level of regional economic development.In addition,the provinces and cities that have been in high-speed development and low-speed development in the results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis do not exist,and each province is in a transition zone and polarization effect zone.In the results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis,there are no provinces with high and low development speed.Each province is in a transition zone and polarization effect zone.In addition,31 provinces and cities did not have‘H-H’area and‘L-L’area.What's more,there are two cities in the‘L-H’area,namely Shanghai and Tianjin.The adjacent provinces and cities of Shanghai and Tianjin are in the high development area,and the two cities are in the low development area,indicating that the development synergy between the two cities and the adjacent cities is poor.The small number of forest parks and the lack of development cooperation with neighboring provinces and cities lead to the low coordination of their tourism development.There is only one province in the‘H-L’area,indicating that with the development of forest tourism industry.To some extent,it shows the similarity of forest tourism resources,and the gap will gradually disappear with the increase of provincial attention.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——The main reasons for the poor coordination of the development of forest park tourism are the low efficiency of pure technology and low scale efficiency,both of which are caused by the imbalance of input and output within the system.For provinces and cities with low coordination caused by low scale efficiency,the investment in forest park tourism and the development and construction of forest resources should be increased.For provinces and cities with low coordination caused by low pure technical efficiency,the capital structure of investment and innovative product investment in forest park tourism should be optimized.Excessive investment leading to resource waste should be avoided,and a balanced development mode in combination with appropriate investment should be kept in local forest park resources.