FDI对林业生态经济效益的影响效应分析

基于2008—2017年中国28个省市的林业生态经济面板数据,运用动态空间杜宾模型分析外商直接投资(FDI)对林业生态经济的影响效应,结果表明:2008—2017年间林业生态经济效益的空间集聚效应显著,2012年后空间相关性明显增强;FDI有助于提升林业生态经济效益;短期内FDI对本地区林业生态经济效益的提升作用显著,但对周边地区林业生态经济发展起抑制作用,长期直接和长期间接效应的估计结果均为正,但长期间接效应未通过显著性检验。因此,建议拓宽FDI的引进渠道及方式,优化FDI的分配结构,建立林业人才共享平台。

Analysis of the Effect of FDI on the Forestry Eco-economic Benefits

⑴ Background——Forestry eco-economic plays an indispensable role in China's economic construction.At present,China's forestry eco-economic construction faces many problems.The introduction of FDI can effectively alleviate the problems in the development of forestry eco-economic.⑵ Methods——The sample data were collected from the China Forestry Statistical Yearbook and the China Statistical Yearbook from 2008 to 2017.The sample size was 280.The sample units included 28 provincial units excluded from Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,Tianjin,Hainan and Tibet.Moran's I index was used to analyze the spatial correlation of forestry eco-economic benefits.The dynamic spatial Durbin model was used to analyze the factors affecting forestry eco-economic benefits and the decomposition effect of FDI.⑶ Results——①The Moran's I index values of forestry eco-economic benefits from 2008 to 2017 were significantly greater than 0.18,and showed an overall upward trend with the increase of time,indicating that there was a significant positive spatial correlation between forestry eco-economic benefits.The values for coefficient of variation of forestry eco-economic benefits from 2008 to 2017 were all less than 0.2 and the overall trend was downward,indicating that the spatial agglomeration of forestry eco-economic benefits was gradually enhanced.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the spatial spillover effect of forestry eco-economic benefits in the empirical process.②According to the dynamic spatial panel estimation of forestry eco-economic benefits,FDI promoted the development of forestry ecological economy in its region and hindered the development of forestry ecological economy in the surrounding areas.The estimated results of total output value of forestry,regional afforestation area and actual investment of forestry ecosystem project were 1.032,0.233 and 0.118 respectively,indicating that they were helpful to improve the ecological benefits of forestry in its region and its surrounding areas.The number of forestry employees at the end of the year,average education level and investment in forestry infrastructure have no significant impact on the forestry eco-economic benefits.③From the decomposition of spillover effect,the short-term direct effect of FDI on the forestry eco-economic benefits was significantly positive,while the short-term indirect effect was significantly negative,indicating that the local protection effect of FDI was obvious in the short term.Long-term direct and Long-term indirect effects were positive,indicating that the local protection of FDI no longer inhibited the development of surrounding forestry ecological economy after a long time.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——First,the spatial agglomeration effect of forestry eco-economic benefits was significant from 2008 to 2017,and gradually strengthens with the increase of time.Secondly,FDI is helpful to promote the growth of forestry eco-economic benefits.In the short term,FDI has a positive effect that cannot be ignored on the improvement of forestry eco-economic benefits in its region,while it has an obvious inhibitory effect on the income increase of forestry eco-economic benefits in the surrounding areas.The estimated results of FDI's long-term direct and indirect effects on forestry ecological economic benefits were positive,but the long-term indirect effects did not pass the significance test.In the long run,FDI will help to promote the growth of forestry eco-economic benefits in this region and its surrounding areas.In order to give full play to the positive role of FDI,we should broaden the introduction channels of forestry FDI,optimize the structure of forestry FDI and improve the utilization rate of FDI.To develop forestry ecological economy,all regions need to work together to break the barriers of talent protection among regions,build a platform for talent sharing,and jointly promote the growth of forestry ecological economy in all regions.