城市特征对城市游客满意度的影响——基于Probit模型的定量分析

游客满意度是衡量城市旅游发展的重要指标之一，掌握和控制游客满意度的影响因素对城市旅游发展和管理越来越关键。国内外研究综述表明，城市旅游的游客满意度影响因素及其关系的定量研究尚不多见，尤其对城市特征因素的研究。城市特征是城市旅游的必要组成，作为客观因素对游客满意度的影响不言而喻。文章运用文献分析法、问卷调查法和二元Probit离散选择模型计量法，以长沙市477名游客的现场调查数据为基础，对城市特征、个人特征和旅游动机三大变量下10个影响因素与游客满意度之间的假设关系进行检验。研究结果显示，修正后的游客满意度影响因素Probit模型具有统计学意义，6个研究假设得到验证；研究结论表明，城市社会发展水平、城市绿化水平、环境保护水平、旅游资源丰富程度、游客月收入、游客是否主动到访等因素对城市旅游的游客满意度产生显著的正面影响，其中，游客主动到访因素对游客满意度的影响作用最大，城市社会发展水平影响作用最小。研究结论一定程度上有利于促使城市管理者更多关注城市发展与旅游质量，最后，从满意度改善系统、城市要素建设、城市旅游资源开发和游客营销引导等方面提出政策建议。

An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Satisfaction of Urban Visitors. City Features,Personal Characteristics and Tourist Motives

Visitor satisfaction is one of the most important indicators of the success of urban tourism development. However, mastering and controlling its influence is becoming more and more critical to urban tourism development and management. It is important for cities to increase the level of visitor satisfaction, improve urban tourism development, coordinate the relationship between urban development and urban tourism and enhance the sustainable development of urban tourism. According to the international literature, research on urban tourism in western countries originated in the mid-1960s, almost 20 years earlier than in China. The research content and themed have become richer and deeper in recent years, emphasizing concerns about urban heritage management and protection, urban tourism environments, business tourism and shopping tourism, theoretical framework development, the impacts of urban tourism, sustainability, and research progress. Although some research discusses the use satisfaction and production development in the context of international urban tourism, as well as visitors＇ perceptions of international cities, few studies have examined the most influential factors affecting tourists＇ satisfaction with urban tourism. In China, there are several shortcomings in the research on urban tourism. First, few scholars have undertaken quantitative analyses regarding the influence of, and relationship between visitors＇ satisfaction and urban characteristics, or visitors satisfaction and social demographics. Second, most literature on visitor satisfaction focuses on simple comparisons between expected and perceived experiences. Third, few, if any, have applied econometrics to test the causality between visitors＇ satisfaction, urban feature and demographics. Considering these deficiencies, document analysis, questionnaires and a Bivariate Discrete Probit Choice Model were used to test hypotheses about influential factors and visitor satisfaction. The influential factors were grouped into three main variables--urban features, personal characteristics and tourist motivation--and ten indicators. Data were collected from 477 visitors through an on-site survey in Changsha City. The results confirmed six hypotheses, and the modified visitor satisfaction-influenced Probit model exhibited statistical significance. The results indicate that the level of urban social development, degree of environmental protection, abundance of tourism resources, visitors＇ monthly salary, and positive visit motives have a positive effeet on visitors＇ satisfaction. Among those variables, positive visit motives have the strongest influence, with the influenee eoefficient being 0. 950122, while urban social development demonstrated the weakest influenee, with the coeffieient being 0. 205284. These findings raise coneerns about urban development and quality of tourism. Finally, policy suggestions for city tourism managers are discussed, ineluding improving systems of satisfaction, urban development and infrastrueture, urban tourism resource development, and tourism marketing.