经济条件、人口特征和风险偏好与城市家庭的旅游消费——基于国内24个城市的家庭调查

旅游者的旅游消费支出对旅游产业的发展至关重要。它是旅游者的经济条件、人口特征和行为特征等因素共同作用的结果。但国内现有的研究由于多采用宏观数据,缺少描述旅游者人口和行为特征的微观数据,对旅游消费支出的影响因素分析有失偏颇。文章采用2010年对中国24个城市的居民家庭进行调查收集到的旅游消费数据,综合考虑家庭的经济条件、人口特征和行为特征,以家庭为单位,采用广义线性模型定量研究了影响家庭旅游消费支出的影响因素。研究表明:除家庭资产和收入外,家庭对收入的预期显著影响家庭的旅游消费,这解释了旅游产业对宏观经济的变动比较敏感的原因。它折射的宏观经济意义是显而易见的:当经济不景气时,旅游业可能是率先遭受冲击的产业。反之,当经济向好发展时,旅游业也往往蒸蒸日上。以户主年龄作为代理变量,调查还发现城市家庭的旅游消费与家庭生命周期密切相关,当户主年龄在25~34岁时家庭旅游消费支出达到高峰。此外家庭的风险偏好也显著影响家庭的旅游消费支出。借鉴美国消费金融调查用分类变量测度风险厌恶的方法,文章发现风险厌恶程度越高的家庭越愿意将大部分收入用于储蓄,从而相应地减少旅游消费支出。由于家庭承受的风险多数无法对冲,因此提高风险厌恶程度较高的家庭的旅游消费,恐怕单靠旅游产业自身还无法解决,需要保险业等相关产业共同努力来创造一个较好的旅游产业发展环境。

Economics Conditions,Demographic Characteristic,Risk Preference and Tourism Consumption of Urban Household： Based on a survey of 24 cities in China

Tourism consumption plays an important role in the development of tourism industry in China. Logically, tourism consumption is a result of the combined action of several factors including tourists＇ economic conditions, demographic characteristics, behaviors characteristics, and so on. However, the existing studies about Chinese tourists＇ consumption are not comprehensive as a result of using macroeconomic data, which is difficult to describe the demographic characteristics and behavior characteristics of tourists. This paper investigated the factors affecting the tourism consumption of urban household by analyzing the survey data collected from 24 cities of China. This survey was conducted in 2010, and the data structure of the survey is based on the unit of household, which provides data conditions for this paper made an in-depth study on tourism consumption at the household level. Using a generalized linear model, this paper took economic factors, demographics and behavioral characteristics together into account, quantitatively analyzed the influential factors of the Chinese urban household＇ s tourism consumption. It found that besides economic factors such as household＇ s income and asset, the urban household＇ s income expectation also affects its tourism consumption. This conclusion helps us understand why tourism industry is sensitive to the fluctuation of macroeconomics. And the macroeconomic implications of this conclusion is obvious： when economy is in a downturn stage, tourism industry may be the first to be hit, conversely, when economy is in a rising stage, tourism also often progresses day by day. Using the age of the head of household as a proxy variable, this paper also studied the relationship between tourism consumption and household＇ s life-cycle, and found that China＇s urban household＇ s tourism consumption has obvious characteristics of life-cycle. When the head of household aged 25 to 30, the tourism consumption of his household reaches the peak. Another conclusion of this paper is that the risk preference also affects the household tourism consumption. The survey mentioned in this paper refers to the measurement method of risk aversion adopted in the Survey of Consumer Finance （SCF）, using a categorical variable to measure household＇ s risk aversion. The analysis result of econometric model shows that the higher the degree of risk aversion of the family, the more willing the household puts most of their income into savings, to reduce the household tourism consumption accordingly. To improve the tourism consumption of the high risk adverse household, the risk taken by household must be considered. However, because most risks taken by household cannot be hedged, the most feasible approach is to transfer risks by buying insurance product. It means that to improve the tourism consumption of household with high degree risk aversion, needs endeavors not only from tourism industry but also other industries including the insurance industry.