人民币汇率的非均衡分析与汇率制度的宏观效率

在现行制度背景下 ,本文从我国外汇市场经济主体微观行为出发 ,建立了我国的外汇需求和供给函数 ;进而分析了市场的均衡和非均衡态势 ,讨论了人民币汇率稳定运行态势后面的微观行为原因。分析发现 :1 .人民币汇率的非均衡是必然的和经常的 ,不能形成市场均衡汇率。在此背景下形成的现实汇率势必是扭曲的汇率 ,由此导致外汇资源的配置扭曲以及相应的真实资源配置扭曲。 2 .在汇率的稳定和调节机制上 ,当前汇率制度类似于“可调整的盯住汇率制” ,我国汇率制度因此具有固定汇率制的特征 ,但不具备固定汇率制的汇率稳定机制———稳定的汇率预期。 3 .现行汇率制度构成对汇率政策的严重制约 ,调节国际收支不得不倚重于直接管制政策的运用 ;货币政策丧失了独立性 ,加剧宏观经济的波动。这种低效率表明 ,我国当前汇率制度及其微观市场安排急待改革。

A Non-equilibrium Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate and the Macro-efficiency of Exchange-rate System

China's current exchange-rate system is called the “managed-floating” system, which lays dual restrictions on capital-account transactions and exchange-rate floating range. Under the institutional arrangement, we analyzed the micro—behavior of the agents in the foreign-exchange market, and constructed the market demand and supply function. Further analysis shows that: (1)non-equilibrium prevail the market. (2) the system is more like the “adjustable-peg” system, while it does not have the exchange-rate stabilizing mechanism embodied in peg system. (3)the system has some characters of flexible system, while it does not have the auto-adjustment mechanism of balance of payment. (4)frequent use of direct-control policies endogenizes money supply, and enlarges the fluctuation of macro-economy. These conclusions imply that the current system is low in efficiency and reformation is urgent.