“唐斯定律”的对城市道路管理方式的启示——以上海为例

近年来，我国城市纷纷采用供给方管理的方式，通过增加道路来缓解民用汽车迅猛增长所导致的交通拥堵。在这样的情况下，研究城市道路管理的方式的合理性具有突出的理论与现实意义。本文通过对城市道路的提供方式与提供数量的分析，认为：基于城市道路消费的特殊性，其供给方管理导致的诱增交通在长期会使交通状况更加恶化，与“唐斯定律”相符。随后通过对上海地区的实证研究从客观交通状况的演变及城市道路使用者的主观需求变化角度分别对该结论作进一步验证。

Enlightenment of"Down's theory"on the management mode of urban road management)——with Shanghai as an Example

In recent years, cities in our country have been adopting supply side management to increase the number of urban roads to reduce traffic congestion caused by the rapid increase of civil cars. Study on the mode of urban road management is both of theoretical and realistic significance under this situation. Through analysis into supply modes and supply number, it is believed that in the long term, supply side management will make the situation even worse and ernpiri cal study in Shanghai is made to further confirm this argument.