Scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions reduction from tourism: an extended tourism satellite account approach in a regional setting

Tourism results in the emission of climate-changing greenhouse gases. There has been limited destination-focused quantitative analysis of how tourism might be reshaped to reduce these emissions. This paper uses an extended tourism environmental satellite account methodology to examine the case of tourism in Wales, a United Kingdom region. It shows how an estimate of the emissions associated with trips to, and in, the region – internally, from the rest of the UK and from abroad – can contribute to regional aspirations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis suggests that substantial emissions cuts are dependent upon technical developments outside of tourism itself. Four potential scenarios are devised and analysed. Scenario 1 shows the value of low carbon electricity production in cutting tourism-related emissions. Scenario 2 analyses a possible 50% fall in international arrivals and 10% increase in UK domestic arrivals – maintaining employment but reducing emissions. Scenario 3 shows the effects of switch from private to public transport modes for 50% of UK resident arrivals. Scenario 4 examines the outcomes of reducing ground transport emissions by using electric, biofuel and hybrid technologies. All scenarios cut emissions, none are highly effective and most are dependent on changes in society and governance.