开放经济条件下人民币反替代现象的实证研究

由于在我国金融开放程度不高，货币反替代的畸形发展给当前宏观经济调控造成了极大的挑战。本文通过对“货币需求的资产组合理论”模型的拓展，采用Johansen的协整方法检验变量之间的协整关系，建立我国货币反替代模型，发现货币反替代的出现主要是因为近年来我国经济持续快速稳定增长加大了国内外居民对人民币的信心所引起的。进而针对货币反替代给我国经济生活带来的危害，提出应采取的措施。

Empirical Analysis of the RMB Reverse Substitution Phenominen in the Condition of Open Economy

As China's financial openness is not high,the currency against the abnormal development of alternatives to the cur-rent macroeconomic regulation and control caused a great challenge.Through the "demand for the currency portfolio theory" model of development,the use of Johansen's entire method of testing variables between the cointegration relations,the estab-lishment of China's anti-money alternative model.Research shows that: the emergence of alternative anti-money is mainly be-cause in recent years China's sustained and rapid economic growth and stability at home and abroad has increased the confi-dence of the residents of the RMB caused by.Then aim at anti-money alternative to China's economic life,put forward neces-sary to take corresponding measures to control.