基于关联数字矩阵的科技创新政策传导路径研究

科技创新政策传导系统是一个动态复杂性反馈系统，基于关联数字矩阵对政策传导系统路径进行量化研究，综合考虑政策输入变量—政策过程变量—政策输出变量的整个过程，建立科技创新政策传导模型，结合关联数字矩阵反馈复杂性、系统动力学和政策科学，构建科技创新政策传导系统因果关系图，并根据政策工具的划分解析人才、税收、研发、政府采购、服务外包5类政策的作用路径。研究发现：①科技创新政策传导系统存在87条正反馈环，无负反馈环，其中主导反馈环45条；②通过关联数字矩阵最终得到14条政策独立主导传导路径并明确各个路径的数量、长度和极性，其中，8条路径都存在延迟效应；③人才激励在政策调控促进创新和发展中占比较大，具有重要地位，服务外包政策紧随其后，两类政策工具对政策调控效果具有直接显著作用，而研发补贴政策对目标的调控最缺乏活力。

Research on the Transmission Path of Technology Innovation Policies Based on Incidence Digital Matrix

The technology innovation policy transmission system is a dynamic complexity system.Based on the incidence digital matrix, the research on the path of the policy transmission system is carried out.Through the policy input variable - the policy process variable the policy output variable.Innovation policy transmission model, combined with system dynamics, policy science and feedback complexity analysis method to construct scientific and technological innovation policy transmission system causality diagram, and according to the division of policy tools analysis of talent, taxation, research and development, government procurement, service outsourcing five policy The path of action.The results of the research are as follows: (1) There are 87 positive feedback loops and no negative feedback loops in the science and technology innovation policy transmission system, among which the dominant feedback loop is 45.(2) Finally, 14 independent policy-oriented conduction paths are obtained by the incidence digital matrix A ［36］ ［36］ and the number, length and polarity of each path are defined.Among them, there are delay effects in all eight paths.(3) talent incentive in the policy control to promote innovation and development occupies an important position, service outsourcing policy followed, two kinds of policy tools on the effect of policy control has a direct and significant role.R & D subsidy policy on the control of the most lack of vitality.