环境规制对长江经济带工业绿色生产率的门槛效应

以碳排放和污染物排放作为非期望产出，采用全局超效率SBM模型测算1997-2015年长江经济带沿线11省市工业绿色全要素生产率，采用面板门槛模型分析环境规制强度对工业绿色生产率的门槛效应。实证结果表明：1997-2015年虽然长江经济带沿线省市工业绿色生产率均呈提升态势，但仅有2014-2015年的上海、2015年的江苏是有效率省份，且省市之间效率差距不断拉大；环境规制对长江经济带绿色生产率存在双重门槛效应，在低、中、高3种环境规制强度地区中，只有中等环境规制强度地区能够通过环境规制显著提升工业绿色生产率。基于此，提出应促进经济增长方式由粗放型转为集约型、提高云贵川湘四省环境规制强度、推动现有环境规制内容市场化转型等政策性建议，以不断提高长江经济带工业绿色生产率。

Study on the Threshold Effect of Environmental Regulation on Industrial Green Productivity in Yangtze River Economic Belt

In this paper, we used carbon emissions and pollutant emissions as non consensual outputs and used the global super efficient SBM model to measure the total green productivity of 11 provinces and cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1997 to 2015.Then we used the panel threshold model to analyze the threshold effect of environmental regulation on industrial green productivity.The empirical results show that the industrial green productivity of the provinces along the Yangtze River Economic Belt is increasing in the period from 1997 to 2015, but only Shanghai from 2014 to 2015 and Jiangsu in 2015 are effective, and the efficiency difference between provinces and cities is increasing.The environmental regulation has a double threshold effect on industrial green productivity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.In the region with low, medium and high environmental regulation intensity, the effect of environmental regulation on industrial green productivity is significant only in the area with moderate environmental regulation intensity, and it’s positive.It is necessary to improve the industrial green productivity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the promoting economic growth mode from extensive to intensive, improving the intensity of environmental regulation in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Hunan provinces and promoting the market transformation of existing environmental regulatory.