知识溢出下增长收敛的复杂性

在知识经济条件下,贸易自由化能否对一个国家的产出水平产生影响,能否为国际经济带来收敛,这是一个重要问题。文章通过假设国家之间构成一个知识网络,贸易中存在非线性的知识溢出,模拟了单边或多边关税下调对一个国际经济增长的收敛行为。研究结果表明,进入WTO体系后关税下调并不总意味着收敛的出现,收敛性依各经济体的初始状态和学习能力的大小而出现复杂行为,在知识网络体系单元取向上,网络的溢出参数——学习能力是决定性因素。多区域系统一旦出现收敛,则不会以牺牲富国利益为代价,即收敛是以低水平稳态向高水平稳态转移的形式出现的。

The Complexity of Growth Convergence with Knowledge Spillover

With knowledge economy, it is an important problem that weather trade liberalization can have a permanent effect on regional convergence or not. By introducing nonlinear knowledge spillover to multi-region system, this paper simulates the effect of growth with unilateral liberalization or free trade. The results show that: (1) convergence of multi-region growth has complexity, the steady-state growth rates differs with knowledge spillovers level; (2) with tariff reductions, region convergence does not always appear, the spillover level is a bifurcation parameter; (3) if regional convergence appears, a rich country (region) will be a beneficiary; (4) unilateral or multilateral liberalization has a positive impact on the steady-state growth of all the trading countries.