地方政府债务对经济增长的影响——基于债务规模与债务结构的双重视角

在提出测算地方政府隐性债务新方法的基础上,基于所测算的数据,从债务规模和债务结构的双重视角,全面分析地方政府债务对经济增长的影响。结果表明:就债务规模而言,当地方政府债务率相对较低时,增加债务有助于促进经济增长,但是当地方政府债务率相对较高时,进一步增加债务对经济增长的推动作用将会减弱。就债务结构而言,当地方政府的隐性债务占比过高时,地方政府债务的扩张会对经济增长产生更为显著的负向影响,这主要是因为隐性债务对民间投资的挤出作用更强。因此,防范与化解地方政府债务风险,不应采取"一刀切"的策略,而应从债务规模和债务结构两个视角综合考量,为各地量身打造防范与化解债务风险的最优策略。

The Impact of Local Government Debt on Economic Growth:Based on the Dual Perspective of Debt Scale and Debt Structure

Based on the new method of measuring the implicit debt of local government, this paper comprehensively analyzes the impact of local government debt on economic growth from the perspective of debt scale and debt structure. The results show that: in terms of debt scale, when the local government debt ratio is relatively low, increasing debt helps promote economic growth, but when the local government debt ratio is relatively high, further increasing debt will not be conducive to economic growth. As far as the debt structure is concerned, when the proportion of local government implicit debt is too high, the expansion of local government debt will have a more significant negative impact on economic growth. This is mainly because implicit debt has a stronger crowding out effect on private investment. Therefore, when dealing with the local government debt problem, we should examine the local government debt situation from the two dimensions of total amount and structure, and avoid the simple "one-size-fits-all" management of the local debt scale.