我国煤炭需求总量分析与预测

为了更好地研究煤炭总量的运行规律和特点,引导煤炭工业健康可持续发展,对我国煤炭需求总量的内涵、平衡态势和数量进行分析与预测。通过研究可以看出,我国煤炭生产总量和消费总量均呈逐步上升、基本保持平衡态势,而且两者波动趋势基本相同。结合设定的情景与我国经济增长,在高煤情景下,2050年之前没有出现峰值;中煤情景下,峰值在2020—2025年出现;低煤情景下,2025—2029年出现峰值。考虑到我国煤炭总量的特征,提出了具体的政策建议。

Analysis and Prediction of China Total Coal Demands

In order to well study the operation law and features of the total coal and to lead a health and sustainable development of the coal industry, an analysis and prediction were conducted on the connotation, balanced tendency and quantity of China total coal demands. The study showed that China total coal production and total coal consumption were steadily increased, were basically kept in a balanced tendency and the fluctuation tendency of the production and consumption was basically same. In combination with the given circumstances and China economic increasing, under the high demands situation, there would be no peak value occurred before the year of 2050. Under the medium demands situation, the coal peak value would be appeared in the year between 2020- 2025. Under the low demands situation, the coal peak would be appeared in the year of 2025- 2029. In consideration on the features of China total coal, certain political proposals were provided.