资本流动、汇率制度与货币危机的实证分析——以东亚货币危机为视角

20世纪90年代以来,国际资本流动空前发展,货币危机此起彼伏,新兴工业化经济体的货币更容易受到国际资本流动的冲击.1997年东亚货币危机爆发前,东亚各经济体实行盯住美元的相对固定汇率制.东亚各经济体对日本和美国的特定贸易结构决定了当日元对美元汇率大幅度波动时,严格盯住美元的汇率制度造成了盯住国家真实汇率的不稳定,继而造成对国际收支的不良影响.国际收支的恶化会破坏投资者对于盯住汇率水平的信心,在资本自由流动背景下,货币投机行为造成了盯住汇率体制的崩溃.因此,资本流动、货币危机和汇率制度三者之间存在着密切关系,资本流动和汇率制度是货币危机爆发的必要条件.

An Empirical Study on Capital Flow, Exchange Rate Regime and Currency Crisis: A Perspective from East Asia Currency Crisis

Since 1990s,international capital flow has undergone an unprecedented development,and currency crises have sprung up from one corner to another on the earth.The crises have demonstrated that moneys of New Industrial Economies(NIE) are more likely to be attacked by international capital flows.Because of the sharp fluctuation of the exchange rate of Japanese yen to U.S.dollar,the dollar-pegged exchange rate regime in East Asia caused real exchange rate instability and ill effects on the balance of payments in the pegging countries.The deterioration of the BOP impaired investors' confidence in the pegged exchange rate level,and the speculative attack collapsed the pegged exchange rate regimes under the condition of free international capital flow.It is obvious that international capital flows,currency crisis and exchange rate regimes are closely linked with one another.Capital flows and exchange rate regimes are the necessary conditions of the currency crisis.