| Abstract: | This paper compares patterns and properties of financial analysts' forecasts (FAFs) of earnings between the UK and the US. Using 299 UK and 400 US firms from the same data source—Institutional Brokers Estimate System tapes—the accuracy of forecasts is examined and the sources of errors analysed. The results reveal that FAFs errors in the UK are much smaller than those in the US, and that this disparity persists even after controlling for firm size and industry effects. Further, FAFs of US firms demonstrate consistent overestimation of earnings over the sample period 1988–1990, while UK firms show overestimation in only one of three years. A model developed to test the determinants of forecast error reveals that forecasters of UK firms are influenced in a somewhat different fashion from those of US firms. While dispersion, predisclosure information (market capitalisation or number of analysts), and industry are common determinants of forecast error for both countries, the percentage of forecasts revised is a major determinant only for UK firms. |
