金融发展水平与人口、产业及空间城镇化关系实证探讨

利用1990—2010年兵团金融发展水平以及人口、产业、空间数据建立协调度模型,运用典型相关分析路径分析探讨了兵团金融发展水平与人口、产业、空间城镇化四者之间的关系及效应,进而提出相关建议。结果表明:(1)进行协调性分析,发现兵团城镇化水平明显提升,金融支持水平提速较缓慢,金融支持与城镇化协调性较高而发展速度较慢。(2)进行典型相关分析,发现金融规模与金融效率促进金融发展,金融结构抑制金融发展,同时,空间城镇化促进城镇化发展,人口与产业抑制城镇化的发展。(3)进行路径分析,发现金融规模及效率对空间城镇化支持效应显著,金融支持结构促进人口城镇化,抑制产业及空间城镇化。

An Empirical Study of the Relationship among Financial Development,Population,Industry and Spatial Urbanization

In this paper, a coordination degree model is established based on the data of Corps financial development, population, industry and space between 1990 and 2010. By using canonical correlation and path analysis, the relationship and effects of financial development, population, industry and spatial urbanization are analyzed and some constructive suggestions are proposed. The results of coordination analysis show that the urbanization level of the Corps has been clearly improved while its financial support level has developed slowly, coordination of financial support and urbanization has been high while the developing speed has been slow. The results of canonical correlation analysis show that financial scale and financial efficiency promote financial development while financial structure suppresses financial development, meanwhile, spatial urbanization promote the development of urbanization while population and industry inhibit the development of urbanization. Through path analysis, it is found that financial scale and efficiency play a notably effective role in supporting spatial urbanization while financial support structure promotes urbanization of population and inhibits industry and spatial urbanization.