从价格调整机制看通货膨胀

我国2004年消费者价格指数连续5个月增速超过5%.5%是公认的安全警戒线:超过5%,即可认为经济过热了,这次经济过热源于投机性的投资过热.其对物价的影响符合价格调整机制理论:当需求超过生产能力时,价格有上升的趋势.受此趋势影响,人们调高对未来价格的预期,价格上涨加速.这预示着如果政府不能有效控制需求和生产能力之间的缺口并改善预期,那么今后物价还有继续恶化的可能.

Use Price Adjustment Mechanism Theory to Study Inflation Question

Economic of China in 2004 was overheated. The growth rate of consumer price index had exceeded 5 percent for five months in succession. The reason for the overheated condition is because investment was overheated. Its effect on price level accords with the theory on price adjustment mechanism. The theory tells us that price level tends upwards whenever aggregate demand exceeds supply capability. People follow to adjust their price expectation for future, which accelarates the rise in prices. It foretells that if government can not control the gap between aggregate demand and supply capability, and can not improve price expectation, then prices in future will deteriorate.