人民币实际汇率波动与中国农产品进出口贸易的实证研究

传统的国际贸易理论认为一国汇率与对外贸易量之间存在密切相关关系,马歇尔-勒纳条件则说明只有在＞1的情况下,汇率贬值才能改善贸易收支。本文通过建立农产品进出口额对人民币实际汇率的计量经济模型来验证M-L条件在农产品贸易领域成立与否,结果表明,汇率贬值能促进我国农产品出口额的增加,但贬值对农产品出口增加的作用不大;同时汇率贬值使得农产品进口额也增加,文章最后针对以上情况作简单的原因分析。

Empirical Study on the Relationship Between International Trade of China's Agricultural Products and the Fluctuation in Real Exchange Rate of RMB

There is an intimate correlation between international trade volume and the exchange rate according to traditional international trade theory.The MashalI-Lerner Condition Theory indicates that the depreciation of one country's currency will improve its trade payment on the condition that＞1.In order to test whether the M-L condition exists or not in the foreign trade of Chinas agricultural products.This paper makes econometric model about the trade value of agricultural products and the real exchange rate.The findings show that the deprecia- tion of RMB will enhance China's agricultural products export,but the effect is small.At the same time,it will also enhance the import of China 's agricultural products.And the paper makes a short analysis about the above findings.